“Saya Tidak Tahu Apa-apa.”
Dia selalu bilang “Saya tidak tahu apa-apa.” (dan dia benci dasi dan TV) Tapi mungkin dia tahu sesuatu yang kita semua tidak tahu…
The Beast
Trader itu hewan buas (“the beast“). Dia makan uang orang lain, terutama para newbie yang baru saja terjun ke pasar modal. Anda mau sukses di bidang ini? Berpikirlah seperti hewan buas, jangan jadi “domba” yang terus digiring ke pejagalan. Pilih dulu hewan buas favorit Anda: hiu, macan gunung, banteng, beruang, apapun yang mempunyai sesuatu yang tajam. (ada bahasan mengenai tajam nanti) Sudah? Silakan lanjutkan membaca.
Jago atau Just Lucky?
Kita sudah selesai yah bahas bahwa memang Anda harus selalu mandiri dan tidak menunggu rekomendasi dari siapapun. Sekarang kita bahas apakah main saham itu perlu keahlian atau cuma perlu keberuntungan. Apakah orang-orang paling sukses di pasar modal memang ahli dalam bidangnya (membaca chart atau membaca fundamental), atau cuma beruntung?
The Average Man
“The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.”
- Jesse Livermore
“It always was my sitting.”
“It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”
- Jesse Livermore, 1923.
Apakah Anda Investor Sibuk?
Sangat sedikit orang yang bisa melakonin trading dengan baik dan benar. Banyak trader pemula, setiap hari menatap layar monitor, karena ilmu belum cukup, cuma bisa dugem (duduk gemetaran) melihat harga naik turun nggak keruan tanpa pegangan (he he…).
Ternyata Belum Saatnya…
Probing the market itu penting. Kesempatan paling besar, khususnya di Indonesia, karena sulit untuk melakukan short selling, adalah pada saat bottom. Jangan sampai ketinggalan. Hanya… hari ini ternyata bukan harinya. Hari ini pasar bergerak lagi ke bawah dengan kuat, menekan level bottom lebih dalam lagi. Level 2550 tertembus di jam 11, dan di tengah hari mencapai 2500 sebelum akhirnya ditutup di 2514, tanpa perlawanan berarti. Maka akhirnya, kami putuskan, menyimpan uang tunai kembali lebih baik untuk sementara waktu. MA20 deadcross MA50 hari ini di 2800. Kalau diingat-ingat kembali, tepat hari ini, IHSG telah mengembalikan semua kenaikan yang ada sejak awal tahun 2010.
Spekulasi
Lho, koq katanya full cash di analisa mingguan, tapi kenapa ada rekomendasi BUY? Dua saham lagi. He he he…kami sedang setengah mengkontradiksi diri sendiri dengan menjadi swinger. Bukankah kalau mau maju, kita harus terus mencoba menembus comfort zone? Kalau kemarin-kemarin kita cari “uang besar” sekarang kita coba cari “receh”, yang kalau dikumpulkan banyak juga.
